SWUTC Research Project Description
Title of Project: Develop a System to Support Preparation of Life-Cycle Budget Needs for Highways (continuation of SWUTC Project #169208 funded in FY09)
Project Number: 161028
Principal Investigator:
Zhanmin Zhang
(512) 471-0139
P.I. Affiliation: University of Texas at Austin
Project Monitor:
Dr. Michael R. Murphy
Center for Transportation Research
The University of Texas at Austin
3208 Red River St. Ste 200
(512) 232-3134
Project Status: Active
Date Started: 9/1/09
Estimation Completion Date: 8/31/10
Estimated Cost - Current Fiscal: $39,000
Estimated Cost - Total Planned: $118,000
Project Summary:
Project Abstract:
Budget planning is important to managing highways. Ideally, the budget planning process can be streamlined by a procedure that would facilitate life-cycle budget needs analysis for highway sections from fence to fence, where the total budget needs would be the summation of the needs for all highway sections under consideration. While some of the elements are maintained with a fixed maintenance schedule, others may require maintenance programming based on the desired level of performance during the life cycle. The latter is particularly true for highway pavements. In addition, risk-cost is of great importance to the development of life-cycle budget needs. The objective of this project is to develop a practical methodology to support highway life-cycle budget needs over the planning horizon.
Project Objectives:
The objective of this proposed research is to develop practical algorithms and procedures that can be implemented and used by state DOTs in support of their decision making in budget planning and budget allocation by capitalizing on what has been accomplished in this area by researchers over the years. The focus of the research is to produce algorithms, procedures, and processes that can be implemented with a typical size of pavement network and practically used by a typical state DOT.
Task Descriptions:
Task 1. Examine the Impact of Uncertainty Associated Unit Costs
Under the previous project, the preliminary unit cost associates with each M&R strategy was developed as an average value based literature reviews and interviews with expert resources such as engineers from TxDOT. However, in reality, the unit cost varies from one project to another project and one time to another time. In other words, the unit cost is associated with uncertainties. Such uncertainties and their impact should be taken into consideration when conducting budget planning analysis. This task is intended to examine methodologies that can be used to integrate uncertainties associated with unit costs into the budget planning analysis process.
Task 2. Examine Uncertainties Associated with the Effect of M&R Strategies
During the previous project, the effect of each M&R strategies has been quantified as an increase in pavement condition measurements, such the Ride Score, Distress Score, and Condition Score, with an exact amount of such increase being defined as a deterministic value. However, in practice, this value may vary for a number of reasons such as the quality of construction, the existing condition of the original pavements, etc. The implication of such uncertainties associated with the M&R effect could be significant, especially if the budget is going planned based on a pre-specified performance goal. This task will focus on examining uncertainties associated with the M&R effect and their implications in terms of budget planning.
Task 3. Validate Performance Prediction Models
Under the previous study of this project, preliminary models have been developed by calibrating the S-shape sigmoid model with the PMIS data from TxDOT. These models have promising properties but require validation with real pavement network data. Under this task, PMIS data for two selected TxDOT Districts will be used for the model validation. More specifically, pavement condition scores will be predicted using the predictions models for a particular year; then, the predicted scores will be compared with the observed scores for the same year.
Task 4. Further Improve the Web-Based System
Under the previous study, a Web-based system framework has been developed with functionalities that allow engineers to conduct “what-if” analysis of various budget planning and allocation needs for managing a pavement network cost-effectively over a selected time horizon. Contingent upon the outcome of the previous tasks, further development of the system may be required in order to accommodate the findings from the previous tasks so that the system will be robust.
Task 5. Prepare Project Reports
The researcher will make every effort to document progress of the work throughout the project. A Research Report which completely documents the research performed, method used, and results achieved will be prepared at the end of the project.
Index Terms: