SWUTC Research Project Description

Title of Project:  An Inventory and Assessment of Models Used to Predict Emergency Evacuation

Project Number:  476660-00041

Principal Investigator:
Carol Lewis
(713) 313-7924
P.I. Affiliation:  Texas Southern University

Project Monitor:
Chris Van Slyke
Houston-Galveston Area Council
(713) 993-4574

Project Status:  Active

Date Started:  9/1/07

Estimation Completion Date:  8/31/08

Estimated Cost - Current Fiscal:  $60,357

Estimated Cost - Total Planned:  $60,357

Project Summary:
Project Abstract:
Evacuations from Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma in 2005 illuminated the issues with clearing large numbers of residents via urban areas roadways and public transportation systems.  In addition, other events including potential terrorists attacks or wildfires show the need for better understanding and predicting community evacuation. Much work has occurred to improve evacuation times and experiences when the need to evacuate occurs.  Unanswered questions remain, however, including how long will it take to evaluate “x” number of individuals under a given set of circumstances.  A number of models exist that purport to forecast evacuation volumes under a variety of scenarios.  A review of these models and their potential application would benefit a number of communities still making decisions about the best methods and routes for evacuation.    

Project Objectives:
The goal of this research is to provide a comprehensive inventory of models that can be used to predict the characteristics of emergency evacuations. Preliminary objectives include:

• Categorize and list all relevant simulation models used as predictive tools to assist decision makers during emergency evacuation scenarios.
• Evaluate these models based on functionality, industry applications and current use.
• Disseminate this report to appropriate agencies.

Task Descriptions:
Task 1:  Review and update literature relative to evacuation models in use and designed by companies and agencies focused on evacuation. 

Task 2:  From the Task 1 findings, confirm the criteria and elements that are contribute to decisions about utilizing the models. Delineate the strengths, known limitations, and conditions under which the models are being applied.   These criteria are expected to include, but are not limited to:

• determining feasibility of evacuation without detailed route planning,
• identifying bottlenecks that would constrain the flow of traffic,
• assessing the effectiveness of alternative traffic control strategies,
• assessing the effectiveness of different evacuation strategies,
• estimating traffic speed on specific roads of portions of the network,
• estimating queuing times at traffic lights or bottlenecks, and
• estimating clearance times for the network or portions of the network

Task 3:  Identify and inventory states, mpos and others, who may have developed their own model or modified a model for evacuation and target these agencies for interviews in a subsequent task.  States along the entire eastern seaboard to include Delaware and Connecticut will be incorporated into the inventory. 

Task 4:  Develop interview instrument to determine the state of the practice regarding the evacuation models. 

Task 5:  Conduct interviews using email or telephone, as the individuals contacted desire.

Task 6:  The data will be synthesized and displayed using standard techniques for diversity-oriented research.  The research team will make full use of the existing data to ensure the quality of the assessments. 

Task 7:  Prepare the final report.

Index Terms:
Hurricane Evacuation, Emergency Evacuation