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600451-00114

SWUTC Research Project Description

Analysis of Evacuation Clearance Time Under Megaregion Disaster Threats

University: Louisiana State University

Principal Investigator:
Brian Wolshon
Gulf Coast Research Center for Evacuation and Transportation Resiliency
(225) 578-5247

Project Monitor:
Brant Mitchell
Stephenson Disaster Management Institute
Louisiana State University

Funding Source: USDOT

Total Project Cost: $44,497

Project Number: 600451-00114

Date Started: 5/1/13

Estimated Completion Date: 5/31/14

Project Summary

Project Abstract:
Over the past decade, there has been a growing consensus among long range climatological forecasters that the earth is experiencing significant changes in its climate. These climatological changes have also been suggested to be linked to a rise in ocean sea levels as well as the likelihood for an increase in the strength and frequency of catastrophic tropical weather systems like hurricanes. When this is coupled with enormous population growth along the coastal regions throughout the world, which are now developing into megaregions, a significant potential exists for the occurrence of catastrophic disasters of heretofore inexperienced proportions that can threaten millions of people.  Megaregion evacuations are very important to emergency managers.  The use of clearance time intervals can be applied for evacuation planning purposes.  Therefore, this research aims to investigate evacuation clearance times for different evacuation demands at megaregion evacuation levels.

Project Objectives:
The main goal of this research is to investigate the evacuation clearance times for different evacuation demands at megaregion evacuation levels.

  1. Introduce the concept of evacuation clearance time and the methods used to calculate the clearance times.
  2. Using the first mega region model as a basis, simulate different emergency scenarios on the mega region model Platform.
  3. Calculate clearance times for each scenario and then analyze the times using mathematical methodology.  Also, the distribution of clearance times will be analyzed.  It is expected that the evacuation clearance times will follow normal distribution, even though the evacuation demand varies.  However, it is anticipated that the percentage of vehicles able to complete their trips differs a lot in response to varied evacuation demand.
  4. Analyze the resulting clearance times and apply this knowledge to aid with evacuation planning.

Task Descriptions:

Task 1 – Review of the Literature
Conduct a Literature and State-of-the-Practice Review regarding evacuation clearance times and calculation methods.

Task 2 – Emergency Scenario Simulation
Using the first mega region model as a basis, simulate different emergency scenarios on the mega region model Platform.

Task 3 – Clearance Time Calculations and Analysis
Calculate clearance times for each scenario and then analyze the times using mathematical methodology.  Also, the distribution of clearance times will be analyzed.  It is expected that the evacuation clearance times will follow normal distribution, even though the evacuation demand varies.  However, it is anticipated that the percentage of vehicles able to complete their trips differs a lot in response to varied evacuation demand.

Task 4 – Analysis and Conclusion
Analyze the resulting clearance times and apply this knowledge to aid with evacuation planning.

Implementation of Research Outcomes:
This research revealed several key aspects of the megaregion evacuation process in the Gulf Coast area of the US as well as for other megaregions in general. Among of the most interesting and potentially the most useful are the relationships between demand generation and the use of capacity enhancing techniques like contraflow and how they ultimately impact the capacity of megaregion-scale networks.

The results produced by this research are likely to effect the field of emergency planning and management. This project demonstrated the interdependent nature of a megaregion during an evacuation. This illustrates that planning for such events should be considered as a holistic approach, instead of the current practice where individual cities and municipalities prepare and plan for emergencies as single entities and not as a cohesive megaregion.

Products developed by this research:

Publication:   Effect of Phased Evacuations in Megaregion Highway Networks, Z. Zhang, K. Spansel, and B. Wolshon, published in the Transportation Research Record: Journal of Transportation Research Board, No. 2459, 2014, pp. 101-109.

Presentation:  Agent-Based Modeling for Evacuation Traffic Analysis in Megaregion Road Networks, Brian Wolshon, Louisiana State University, presented to the 4th International Workshop on Agent Based Mobility, Traffic and Transportation Models, Methodologies and Application (ABMTrans 2015), London, England, June 2015.

Presentation:  Effect of Phased Evacuations in Megaregion Highway Networks, B. Wolshon, Louisiana State University, presented at the 93rd TRB Annual Meeting, Session 814, Washington, D.C., January 2014.

Presentation: Development and Application of the Gulf Coast Megaregion Evacuation Traffic Model, Bryan Wolshon, Louisiana State University, presented at the 2014 National Hurricane Conference, Orlando, FL, April 2014.

Impacts/Benefits of Implementation:
This research can lead to new regulatory policies for cities, counties, and states with regard to emergency planning requirements. Using the knowledge gained from this research, transportation planners can look at developing plans and address the mobility needs of the entire megaregion instead of individual cities.

Web Links:
Final Technical Report