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167260-1 Report Abstract

Population Updating System Structures and Models Embedded Within the Comprehensive Econometric Microsimulator for Urban Systems (CEMUS)

Naveen Eluru, Abdul Rawoof Pinjari, Jessica Y. Guo, Ipek N. Sener, Sivaramakrishnan Srinivasan, Rachel B. Copperman, and Chandra R. Bhat, University of Texas at Austin, October 2007, 44 pp. (167260-1)

This report describes the development of a population update modeling system as part of the development of the Comprehensive Econometric Microsimulator for SocioEconomics, Land-use, and Transportation Systems (CEMSELTS). CEMSELTS itself is part of the Comprehensive Econometric Microsimulator for Urban Systems (CEMUS) under development at The University of Texas at Austin. The research in the report recognizes that modeling the linkages among demographics, land use, and transportation is important for realistic travel demand forecasting. The population update modeling system focuses on the modeling of events and actions of individuals and households in the urban region. An analysis framework is proposed to predict the future-year population characteristics by modeling the changes to all relevant attributes of the households and individuals. The models identified in the analysis framework are estimated for the Dallas-Fort Worth region. The econometric structures used include deterministic models, rate-based probability models, binary logit models, multinomial logit models, and ordered-response probit models. To verify the outputs from these models, the predicted results for the year 2000 are compared against observed 2000 Census data.

Keywords: Synthetic Population, Travel Demand Forecasting, Land-Use Modeling

ENTIRE REPORT (Adobe Acrobat File – 314 KB)