SWUTC Research Project Description
Gulf Coast MegaRegion Evacuation Traffic Simulation Modeling and Analysis
Project Number: 600451-00101
Principal Investigator:
Brian Wolshon
(225) 578-5247
P.I. Affiliation: Louisiana State University
Project Monitor:
Brant Mitchell
Stephenson Disaster Management Institute
Baton Rouge, LA
Project Status: Active
Date Started: 10/1/12
Estimation Completion Date: 9/30/13
Estimated Cost – Current Fiscal: $48,893
Estimated Cost – Total Planned: $48,893
Project Summary
Project Abstract:
Over the past decade, there has been a growing consensus among long range climatological forecasters that the earth is experiencing significant changes in its climate. These climatological changes have also been suggested to be linked to a rise in ocean sea levels as well as the likelihood for an increase in the strength and frequency of catastrophic tropical weather systems like hurricanes. When this is coupled with enormous population growth along the coastal regions throughout the world, which are now developing into mega regions, a significant potential exists for the occurrence of catastrophic disasters of heretofore inexperienced proportions that can threaten millions of people. Work is now underway to begin investigating megaregion evacuation. The Transportation Analysis and Simulation System (TRANSIMS), an agent-based travel simulation system designed to meet State Departments’ of Transportation (DOTs) and Metropolitan Planning Organizations’ (MPOs) needs for more accurate and more sensitive travel forecasts for transportation planning and emissions analysis, will be used for model construction. In the project the goal will be to create megaregion evacuation traffic scenarios to examine the creation of and recovery from traffic congestion.
Project Objectives:
The objective of this project is to take the initial steps toward investigating mega region evacuation. Over the two decades there have been numerous traffic simulation models used or developed specifically for evacuation analysis. These have ranged from macroscopic to mesoscopic and microscopic and each has inherent strengths and weaknesses relative to evacuation analysis.
Task Descriptions:
Task 1: Literature and State-of-the-Practice Review
Task 2: Data Analysis
Task 3: Development of TRANSIMS model
Task 4: TRANSIMS calibration
Task 5: Final Report
Implementation of Research Outcomes:
This research effort developed a micro-level traffic simulation model for a megaregion. To accomplish this, a mass evacuation event was modeled using a traffic demand generation process that created a spatial and temporal distribution of departure times, origins, and destinations based on past hurricane scenarios. A megaregion-scale simulation was required to assess this event because only at this level can traffic from multiple cities, over several days, with route assignments in multiple and overlapping directions be analyzed.
Among the findings of the research was that it is possible to scale-up and adapt existing models to reflect a simultaneous multi-city evacuation covering a megaregion. The movements generated by the demand and operational models were both logical and meaningful and they were able to capture the key elements of the system, including the traffic progression over vast spaces and long time durations. They were also adequate to demonstrate benefits of proactive traffic management strategies and the effect of increased and decreased advanced warning times. The project also revealed numerous limitations of existing modeling and computational processing capabilities.
Products developed by this research:
Model Developed: This research pioneered the development of a microscopic traffic simulation model for a megaregion evacuation. The methodology developed for this work is now the state-of –the-art in developing similar models. Further, the model itself, is being shared with other research institutes to help further the contribution of this research effort.
Publication: Performance Characteristics of Megaregion Traffic Networks During Mass Evacuations, Z. Zhang, K. Spansel, V. Dixit and B. Wolshon, Louisiana State University, submitted for publication in the International Journal of Transportation, Vol. 2, No. 3, 2014, pp 53-72.
Publication: Megaregion Network Simulation for Evacuation Analysis, B. Wolshon, Louisiana State University, published in the Transportation Research Record: Transportation Research Record, No. 2397, 2014, pp. 161-170.
Publication: Planning and management of Transportation Systems for Evacuation, B. Wolshon and V.V. Dixit, Louisiana State University, Chapter 8 of the Handbook of Emergency Response: A Human Factors and Systems Engineering Approach, ISBN: 978-1-4665-1456-0, Taylor & Francis Publishing Inc., New York, 2013.
Dissertation: Megaregion Network Simulation Model for Regional Evacuation, Zhao Zhang, Louisiana State University, August 2012.
Presentation: Megaregion Evacuation Analysis Using Traffic Simulation, Brian Wolshon, presented to the 39th Annual Hazards Research and Applications Workshop, Broomfield, CO, July 2014.
Presentation: Simulation and Analysis of Evacuations in Megaregion Scale Networks, Brian Wolshon, Louisiana State University, presented at the 39th Annual natural Hazards Research and Applications Workshop, Broomfield, CO, June 2014.
Presentation: Modeling Large-Scale and Regional Evacuations, Bryan Wolshon, Louisiana State University, presented at the 2014 National Hurricane Conference, Orlando, FL, April 2014.
Presentation: Development and Application of the Gulf Coast Megaregion Evacuation Traffic Model, Bryan Wolshon, Louisiana State University, presented at the 2014 National Hurricane Conference, Orlando, FL, April 2014.
Presentation: Performance Characteristics of Megaregion Traffic Networks During Mass Evacuations, B. Wolshon, Louisiana State University, presented at the 2014 National Evacuation Conference, New Orleans, LA, January 2014.
Presentation: Megaregion Evacuation Analysis, S. Parr, Louisiana State University, presentation to the 2013 Conference of Visualization of Big Data, Irvine, CA, October 2013.
Presentation: Megaregion Evacuation Simulation and Analysis, Bryan Wolshon, Louisiana State University, presented at the 2013 Sea Level Rise Summit, Fort Lauderdale, FL, October 2013.
Presentation: Megaregion Network Simulation for Evacuation Analysis, B. Wolshon, Louisiana State University, presented at the 92nd Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., January 2013.
Impacts/Benefits of Implementation:
This research can lead to new regulatory policies for cities, counties, and states with regard to emergency planning requirements. Using the knowledge gained from this research, transportation planners can look at developing plans that address the mobility needs of the entire megaregion instead of individual cities.
Web Links:
Final Technical Report