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473700-00084-1 Report Abstract

Estimation of Toll Road Users Value of Time

Dong Hun Kang and William R. Stockton, Texas A&M University, February 2008, 111 pp. (473700-00084-1)

This research examines a new methodology for prospectively estimating the willingness of travelers to use a toll road by combining travel time saved with the income of the prospective customer base.  The purpose of the research is to facilitate network level planning by allowing some reasonable predictions of acceptable toll rates using readily available data and estimation techniques.  Methods of estimating user benefit resulted in simulated distributions of value of user time.  Values of time are linked to census tract income data for the user population to produce value of time as a percent of income as an indicator, which is hypothesized to be a more useful indicator of the travel market than conventional indicators.  Techniques for estimating the travelshed of a toll road are examined.

Results show that considering value of time as a percentage of census tract median income provides an improved portrayal of the toll road market, as usage of the toll road increases with increasing income.  Using census tract median income as the income parameter has shortcomings, in that it produces anomalous results at very low population levels.  Of the two methods of estimating the travelshed, the visual estimation approach was not satisfactory, leaving the analyst to use select link analyses instead.

Keywords: Willingness to Pay, Value of Time, Toll Revenue Forecasting

ENTIRE REPORT (Adobe Acrobat File – 1.9 MB)